电缆燃烧试验新旧标准的火灾动力学仿真对比分析

为了研究国家标准的变化对成束电缆燃烧试验的影响，使用FDS软件进行电缆燃烧性能的火灾动力学模拟研究。对新旧国家标准进行燃烧模拟，比较分析箱体温度、热释放速率（HRR）、电缆前后表面温度和烟密度仿真结果，考察新旧国家标准间的差异因素对燃烧的动力学过程的影响，根据模拟结果探讨新国家标准下电缆通过燃烧试验的难易程度和电缆的优化设计。研究结果表明:新标准对炭化高度要求更严格，故在保证电缆机械强度的前提下，为达到新标准中的B1级阻燃等级，应在旧标准A类阻燃的基础上增加电缆的阻燃效果，特别需要抑制火焰在电缆表面垂直蔓延的能力。     

In vivo and in vitro metabolism of tobacco-specific nitrosamine, 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK), by the freshwater planarian, Dugesia japonica

Cigarette smoke is a risk factor for human health, and many studies were conducted to investigate its adverse effects on humans and other mammals. However, since large amounts of cigarette products are produced and consumed, it is possible that tobacco chemicals can end up in aquatic environments through several routes, thus influencing aquatic organisms. In this study, the presence of tobacco-specific nitrosamine (TSNA), 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK), in aquatic environment was demonstrated. Since toxic effects on and distribution patterns of tobacco chemicals in aquatic organisms were rarely studied, after results of an acute toxicity pretest were obtained, experiment was conducted to investigate the bioaccumulation pattern of NNK and distribution patterns of its metabolites, mainly 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol (NNAL), in NNK-treated freshwater planarians, Dugesia japonica. Results from in vivo and in vitro studies showed that NNK was readily converted to NNAL through the carbonyl reduction in bodies of NNK-treated planarians. Tissue concentrations of both chemicals increased in time- and dose-dependent manners. Furthermore, we examined the end products of NNK/NNAL α-hydroxylation in NNK-treated planarians, but only 1-(3-pyridyl)-1,4-butanediol was detected, suggesting that NNK metabolism in planarians partially differs from that in mammalian systems. This is the first report on NNK metabolism in an aquatic organism and can be used as a foundation for developing freshwater planarians as a new in vivo model for the study of NNK toxicology in the future.     

基于HFACS的化工企业火灾爆炸事故人因分析*

为研究化工企业火灾爆炸事故的主要人为因素，以63起火灾爆炸事故案例为样本，构建人为因素分析与分类系统（HFACS）模型，进行火灾爆炸事故人为因素分类统计与分析，并利用卡方检验和比值比分析HFACS模型上下层级间的因果关系。结果表明:HFACS模型中上下层级人为因素间存在显著的因果关系，层级1中的“不良的组织氛围”及“组织过程漏洞”和层级2中“监督不充分”在HFACS模型中可以显著增大事故发生的可能性，且“资源管理漏洞”、“不良的组织氛围”、“组织过程漏洞”→“监督不充分”→“人员因素”→“违规”是引发事故的关键路径，并根据HFACS模型中引发事故的关键路径及其人为因素的主要表现形式，提出针对性的化工企业火灾爆炸事故预防措施。     

现行监测方法标准与监测技术规范中存在的问题与改进

研究与分析了现行有效的环境监测方法标准与监测技术规范,指出了一些较早颁布的环境监测方法标准如最经常使用的《水质化学需氧量的测定重铬酸盐法》(GB 11914—1989)等存在的未明确给出检出限、测定下限(即未给出方法的定性、半定量以及定量监测范围)以及使用术语不统一、不规范等问题。研究发现,《地表水和污水监测技术规范》(HJ/T 91—2002)等监测技术规范普遍存在的最大缺陷是没有引入测定下限的概念,未考虑与规定半定量区间内的监测结果报出问题。此外,这些规范也存在着术语使用不统一、不规范的现象,且对于低于检出限的监测结果应如何报出与参与统计的规定存在不一致现象。研究列举了一些存在问题的环境监测方法标准和环境监测技术规范,对其进行剖析,揭示问题,并对其下一步的修改、完善提出建议。     

周期性浸泡腐蚀试验标准及相关设备分析

基于产品运输、使用环境的复杂性,单一环境因素模拟已不能满足产品测试需求。溶液浸泡腐蚀试验是一种常见的环境试验,目前,其试验形式除单一的溶液浸泡外,周期性浸泡腐蚀试验也逐步开展。对此,GB、TB、ISO、PSA、ASTM等相关标准给出了规定要求和试验方法,在此基础上为满足其要求相应的试验装置也逐步开始开发和应用。基于不同标准和现有试验设备对周期性浸泡腐蚀试验进行分析讨论,得出各个标准的不同适用范围和试验条件,并针对其原理共性提出开发通用性设备的展望,为浸泡腐蚀试验标准的选取及试验装置的开发提供参考意见。     

Classification of driving workload affected by highway alignment conditions based on classification and regression tree algorithm

Objective: Guaranteeing a safe and comfortable driving workload can contribute to reducing traffic injuries. In order to provide safe and comfortable threshold values, this study attempted to classify driving workload from the aspects of human factors mainly affected by highway geometric conditions and to determine the thresholds of different workload classifications. This article stated a hypothesis that the values of driver workload change within a certain range.

Methods: Driving workload scales were stated based on a comprehensive literature review. Through comparative analysis of different psychophysiological measures, heart rate variability (HRV) was chosen as the representative measure for quantifying driving workload by field experiments. Seventy-two participants (36 car drivers and 36 large truck drivers) and 6 highways with different geometric designs were selected to conduct field experiments. A wearable wireless dynamic multiparameter physiological detector (KF-2) was employed to detect physiological data that were simultaneously correlated to the speed changes recorded by a Global Positioning System (GPS) (testing time, driving speeds, running track, and distance). Through performing statistical analyses, including the distribution of HRV during the flat, straight segments and P-P plots of modified HRV, a driving workload calculation model was proposed. Integrating driving workload scales with values, the threshold of each scale of driving workload was determined by classification and regression tree (CART) algorithms.

Results: The driving workload calculation model was suitable for driving speeds in the range of 40 to 120 km/h. The experimental data of 72 participants revealed that driving workload had a significant effect on modified HRV, revealing a change in driving speed. When the driving speed was between 100 and 120 km/h, drivers showed an apparent increase in the corresponding modified HRV. The threshold value of the normal driving workload K was between ?0.0011 and 0.056 for a car driver and between ?0.00086 and 0.067 for a truck driver.

Conclusion: Heart rate variability was a direct and effective index for measuring driving workload despite being affected by multiple highway alignment elements. The driving workload model and the thresholds of driving workload classifications can be used to evaluate the quality of highway geometric design. A higher quality of highway geometric design could keep driving workload within a safer and more comfortable range. This study provided insight into reducing traffic injuries from the perspective of disciplinary integration of highway engineering and human factor engineering.     

河湖水系连通分类体系探讨

河湖水系连通是保障国家水安全的治水新方略,科学的分类体系是开展河湖水系连通研究和生产实践的必然要求。论文结合河湖水系连通特点和内涵,提出五项分类原则:科学性、系统性、主导性、区域性和可操作性。综合考虑河湖水系连通的自然属性和经济社会属性,遵循五项分类原则,从连通性质、连通功能、连通区域、连通尺度、连通对象、连通时效、空间格局和连通方向等方面进行分类,初步构建了河湖水系连通分类体系,并对国内典型案例进行了归类;选择基于连通性质的分类、基于连通功能的分类和基于地区水资源特征的分类等三个主要分类展开分析,探讨了三种类型的连通特性、连通目标等主要问题。     

Comparison and ranking of different modelling techniques for prediction of site index in Mediterranean mountain forests

Forestry science has a long tradition of studying the relationship between stand productivity and abiotic and biotic site characteristics, such as climate, topography, soil and vegetation. Many of the early site quality modelling studies related site index to environmental variables using basic statistical methods such as linear regression. Because most ecological variables show a typical non-linear course and a non-constant variance distribution, a large fraction of the variation remained unexplained by these linear models. More recently, the development of more advanced non-parametric and machine learning methods provided opportunities to overcome these limitations. Nevertheless, these methods also have drawbacks. Due to their increasing complexity they are not only more difficult to implement and interpret, but also more vulnerable to overfitting. Especially in a context of regionalisation, this may prove to be problematic. Although many non-parametric and machine learning methods are increasingly used in applications related to forest site quality assessment, their predictive performance has only been assessed for a limited number of methods and ecosystems.In this study, five different modelling techniques are compared and evaluated, i.e. multiple linear regression (MLR), classification and regression trees (CART), boosted regression trees (BRT), generalized additive models (GAM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). Each method is used to model site index of homogeneous stands of three important tree species of the Taurus Mountains (Turkey): Pinus brutia, Pinus nigra and Cedrus libani. Site index is related to soil, vegetation and topographical variables, which are available for 167 sample plots covering all important environmental gradients in the research area. The five techniques are compared in a multi-criteria decision analysis in which different model performance measures, ecological interpretability and user-friendliness are considered as criteria.When combining these criteria, in most cases GAM is found to outperform all other techniques for modelling site index for the three species. BRT is a good alternative in case the ecological interpretability of the technique is of higher importance. When user-friendliness is more important MLR and CART are the preferred alternatives. Despite its good predictive performance, ANN is penalized for its complex, non-transparent models and big training effort.     

上海市火电行业NOx排污费征收标准及情景分析

基于火电行业典型样本的脱硝成本,以调整排污征收标准使得企业得到相对收入,即未脱硝排污费大于脱硝后总支出为判别标准,得出NOx排污征收标准最低值应为1.2元/0.95kg,最终需达到4.0元/0.95kg以上,当征收标准为1.2~10.0元/0.95kg时脱硝总支出占单位电量收入为0.5%~5.0%.根据情景分析,“十二五”征收标准为1.2元/0.95kg时5a总排污费达3.4~4.4亿元,如作为推动企业脱硝建设补贴资金来源,则可补贴额度为23~30元/kW,占实际建设支出的23.1%~30.6%,单位电量总支出占单位电量收入比例为1.5%~1.6%.“十三五”NOx排污征收标准调整为2.4元/0.95kg时5a总排污费为2.9~4.4亿元,可作为NOx超量削减奖励资金,发挥经济杠杆作用,挖掘脱硝设施减排潜力.     

辽河流域氨氮水质基准与应急标准探讨

水质基准是水质标准制/修订的科学依据,针对我国流域状况进行水质基准研究,并以此为依据制/修订我国相关水质标准已成为迫切需求.针对辽河流域的水生生物分布和水质状况,借鉴美国氨氮基准方法学,对氨氮毒性数据进行分析,得出了以水体温度和pH值为自变量的辽河流域氨氮急性和慢性基准函数方程,由方程可知,pH值8.0,25℃时,辽河流域的氨氮急性和慢性基准分别为3.06,0.364mg/L.利用荷兰和澳大利亚的水质基准技术对推算结果进行了验证和比较,结果表明3种方法得值在同一数量级,且荷兰基准技术方法相对保守.此外,基于生态风险评估对氨氮水质基准向应急水质标准的转化进行了探讨.